VERY slim. Chances drop dramatically once you hit 13 weeks.I'm 12w5d (ten days more than I thought according to ultrasound), and I'm happy about that because I had a tubal in December. But I saw baby yesterday, and the little acrobat is healthy and where its suppose to be. Heart is beating, and it's just a-flippin everywhere in there. Its amazing that baby can be moving THAT much and we can't even feel it yet....GL!!